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Recommended Books
Bug Out: The Complete Plan for Escaping a Catastrophic Disaster Before It's Too Late (2010) by Scott B. Williams.
When Technology Fails: A Manual for Self-Reliance, Sustainability, and Surviving the Long Emergency by Matthew Stein.
Just in Case: How to be Self-Sufficient when the Unexpected Happens, by Kathy Harrison.
The Unthinkable - Who Survives When Disaster Strikes (2008) by Amanda Ripley
When All Hell Breaks Loose: Stuff You Need To Survive When Disaster Strikes by Cody Lundin.
The Worst-Case Scenario Survival Handbook by Joshua Piven and David Borgenicht.
Crisis Preparedness Handbook: A Complete Guide by Jack A. Spigarelli.
DVD's and TV Programs
History Channel:"After Armageddon", "Seven Signs of the Apocalypse", "Crumbling of America", "Global Warning," "Mt. Vesuvious", "Yellowstone", "Mega-Tsunami", "Magnetic Storm", "2012 - End of Days".
Weather Channel: "It Could Happen Tomorrow," a series that examines the impact of potential mega-disasters throughout the United States. Episodes include an earthquake on the New Madrid Fault, an eruption on Mt. Rainier, and flash flooding in Boulder, Colorado.
BBC Documentary: "Supervolcano: The Truth about Yellowstone". (Here's a transcript via ABC News.)
ABC News: "Earth 2100 A.D."
Evacuation Strategies
cont. from Page 3
Nearest Accessible Wilderness
The vast majority of survivalists subscribe to an evacuation strategy that targets undeveloped areas within driving distance of your home. Kayaker Scott Williams lays out the basic thought process in his 2010 book Bug Out: The Complete Plan for Escaping a Catastrophic Disaster Before It's Too Late. Just look at a map and you can quickly identify potential refuges for the worst-case scenario.Here are some of the options you have to choose from:
National Parks - These pristine tracts boast uncontaminated water sources, plenty of game to hunt, fish to hook, wild edibles to forage and (in the case of wooded areas) plenty of fuel for cooking and staying warm. On the down side, they're such an obvious choice, masses of people are likely to migrate in their direction in a national catastrophe. Besides that, scouting out good locations, performing dry runs and evacuating in advance can be problematic, since the parks are so heavily regulated. State gun laws are observed, as are national park restrictions on your ability to carry some types of weapons. You also need a wilderness permit in order to explore the backcountry, which limits your time and requires you to stick to a specific trail itinerary.
National Forests and BLM Lands - Like the Bureau of Land Management, the National Forest Service enforces a multi-use policy with regard to the territories it oversees. Mining, logging, hunting and (in the case of BLM tracts) ATV use is permitted. Needless to say, you should be wary of the wildfire potential in any heavily wooded area. Look for nearby caves or other geologic formations that can offer cover should a fire break out. On the upside, you don't need a wilderness permit to explore millions of undeveloped acres (especially in the western U.S.), including places that are wholly inaccessible by car. Once you identify a remote location that won't be overrun by other evacuees anytime soon, enter the waypoint onto your GPS unit, or print out some directions and draw a map for a rainy day.
Army Corps of Engineers Domains - This agency presides over the shores on either side of American rivers with large dams, hydro-electric plants, reservoirs or other flood control elements (like levees). These wilderness tracts are often known only to local residents, so competition for the resources should be less intense than with other public lands. On the down side, you generally need a boat, kayak or canoe to get around, and flooding caused by global warming may remain an ongoing threat in any watery terrain for decades to come.
Other Undeveloped Areas - Land trusts and conservancies run by nonprofit groups offer the same perks as public lands, except not on the same scale. Like state and county parks, utility-owned lands and private estates, the amount of acreage is often miniscule. However, in many cases these various entities own adjacent properties, so when you string it all together, you get plenty of open terrain to choose from in a doomsday emergency.
In order to implement an evacuation, you'll have to formulate a specific plan and carry out most of the steps long before a possible doomsday arrives. Williams recommends the following steps:
- Decide on your specific destination(s). To get a bird's eye view of what's available closest to home (or far from home, for that matter), you can subscribe to Google Earth, using mapping software available online, or pay a visit to your local library to peruse some maps.
- Learn the intimate details of the terrain. Besides knowing the topography, you'll want to research the plants, fish, insects, reptiles and animals you'll be dealing with in your refuge. (If you know a little about chemistry, metallurgy or building materials, you might also want to get hold of a geologic map of the area.)
- Determine your mode of transportation and get those wheels ready now. Whether you're evacuating by car, truck, SUV, boat, mule or bicycle, make a list and assemble everything you need for the trip. This includes jerry cans (which hold spare gasoline), racks (which will hold the gas cans other gear), vehicle spare parts and tools (e.g. spark plugs, jumper cables, engine oil, etc.), and 3-4 days' worth of food and water.
- Consider burying or stashing a cache of materials at your destination months in advance. You can't count on it being there when you arrive (or even if you'll go to that particular destination), but settling in will be much easier if you have shovels, saws, wire, a 22-caliber rifle and bullets, snares, spears, pots and pans, food and water at the ready. Williams recommends 5-gallon buckets with gasket-sealed lids for packing perishable items. Anticipate water damage and bear burglaries. Make careful notes about where you hide the cache. GPS coordinates are insufficient since that technology can go down at any time.
- Carefully examine the roads out of town (both where you live and where you're headed). In a natural disaster, expect traffic light outages, gridlock and abandoned cars blocking lanes. Instead, map out a route that steers away from highways and boulevards in the more densely populated areas. Old two-laer county roads are likely to be less congested. In an emergency, private roads should also come into play.
Some doomsday websites, citing the Great Flood, recommend evacuating to the highest places on Earth. Earth-based cataclysms are likely to trigger chemical and sewage spills, radiation leaks at nuclear facilities, and other toxic discharges that can poison the land, air and water table up to about 3000 feet in altitude. Climbing out of harm's way, therefore, may be the most sensible plan.
Other doomsday trackers argue that since the second epistle of Peter says the Earth will be destroyed this time by fire from the heavens, the higher locales may be more dangerous. Fire could take the form of volcanic eruptions as well as space radiation and nuclear attacks.
Evacuating to a mountaintop retreat is easier said than done, in any case. The legendary Hindu Kush along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border is largely controlled by fundamentalist Islamic military forces. Tibet is occupied by China, while Nepal has spent the last decade in the throes of its own civil war. In South America, the Shining Path guerrillas and Columbian kidnappers are known to be roaming around the Andes and other high-altitude locales.
The Alps, meanwhile, are crumbling fast by geologic standards. The frequently occurring mudslides make parts of that mountain chain extremely dangerous. In the United States, federal and state government agencies regulate the public's access to the Rockies, Sierras, and other mountains, but these will likely be popular destinations for Americans evacuating cities in a major emergency. (More on this below.)
As for polar refuges like the Alaskan and Canadian wilderness, the higher latitudes present food supply challenges. It remains difficult to predict how global warming and changes in the Pacific Ocean will affect western North America.
In defense of the high-altitude haven, staying put at lower altitudes - where the planet is plagued by drought, flooding, pandemics, etc - doesn't make much sense, either. It goes without saying that a rogue nuclear missile is more likely to strike a major population center than a remote mountain chain. Drawing from our experience in the Dark Ages, a disease epidemic would least affect people living high above the fray.
Ethiopia and other Foreign Refuges
Some 2012 survivalists are said to be eyeing Ethiopia as a possible refuge. Yet this idea has its drawbacks. Shortly after Katrina in 2005, and following a week of X-class solar flares, an earthquake opened up a 37-mile-long gorge, 13 feet wide in Boina. The city is 270 miles northeast of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capitol. Geophysicists have since declared this spot the beginning of a new ocean, which makes it hardly the kind of place to put down roots.
Of course, Ethiopia is a big country. But it has about a hundred volcanoes and is home to the African Rift. There may be other parts of the continent more hospitable during a period of climate stability.
When investigating any foreign country as a potential refuge, check out the following:
- climate, altitude and yearly rainfall
- presence of diseases like Malaria
- political unrest
- proximity to fault lines and volcanoes
- religious and cultural customs and laws
- plants and other food sources
Some of the information you need is availabe in the CIA factbook, the U.S. State Department website - travel advisories section, and the website of the Centers for Disease Control. Old articles in National Geographic magazine and other publications may provide more detailed insight into the terrain and culture.
Flexible Planning Approach
Since the manner in which the next mega-disaster will strike is unknown, the first step to developing an evacuation plan is to learn as much about the various threats as possible. For example, if there's a volcanic eruption within a hundred miles of your home, you may not be able to outrun a fast-moving lahar (volcanic mud flow). Yet by simply avoiding canyons and creeks, or climbing up in altitude, you can easily stay out of its path. That's because a lahar follows gravity downward like the rush of water.
Likewise, if you find yourself near ground zero after a nuclear blast, you may be better off sheltering in place for awhile in a concrete building (assuming its windows are intact). Since radiation is carried by airborne particles, you'll limit your exposure by allowing the dust to settlebefore you go outdoors.
Understanding disaster threats will inform your decision-making when it comes time to decide how to respond. This is why disaster agencies sponsor so many mock drills, trainings and seminars. By teaching your body to react to horrific events with concrete actions, you're also less likely to experience the emotional brain-freeze and erratic behavior that typically accompanies natural disasters. Whether you make a dry run, or just read up on the subject, you can acquire the nuts and bolts to help you take the right evasive action, whatever the emergency.
The second step is to identify the safest types of geography for a long-term evacuation. This task may be initially accomplished by a process of elimination. Based on the survey of potential threats outlined above, here are some destinations that should probably be avoided:
- seacoasts (unless there's higher ground nearby)
- land with major fault lines running beneath
- areas within a hundred miles of a volcano or tectonic plate boundary.
- Northern Europe (mini-ice age forecast)
- densely populated areas (i.e. pandemic and nuclear targets)
- places within twenty or thirty miles of a potential migration route for evacuees
- any terrain, altitude or climate unsustainable for farming, foraging, hunting or fishing
- areas absent waterways, underground springs and/or significant rainfall
- countries that are politically unstable or rife with diseases like malaria
- altitudes below 3000 feet, if industrialized areas are present
Intuition Trumps Logic Approach
If we are to believe the scriptures and legends from cultures around the world, the survivors of an apocalypse are not people gifted with actuarial skills, but rather those who best maintain a spiritual connection with the heavens. It seems that a higher power has directed evacuations during past cataclysms on Earth. That's why the decision about where to go and what to do may be a matter requiring far less logic and a lot more faith. See our section on Spirituality for more on this aspect of 2012 preparation.
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